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Topic Discussed: The Hindu Notes of 4th January 2019

• Hope with concerns in 2019
• A case of unprincipled criminalisation
• Breaking barriers
• Dark side of the moon
• Is the Modi charisma fading?
• Voting for change

Hope with concerns in 2019

Five issues need to be addressed comprehensively if India is to achieve sustained high growth

The New Year is always looked forward to with hope, whatever the conditions might have been the previous year; 2018 has been a mixed bag, both globally and domestically.

Globally, the growth rate in 2018 was high, particularly in the United States. But strong signs of a trade war emerged, dimming hopes of faster international trade. Britain is passing through the pangs of separation from the European Union. Domestically, the first quarter growth rate was high. But signs are not good for the balance of the year. The rupee underwent a severe shock as crude oil prices rose, and abated after a fall in oil prices. While prices fell, agrarian distress accentuated.

India’s growth rate in 2018-19 is forecast at 7.4% by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). But it looks to be a touch-and-go situation. More likely, it will be slightly lower. Looking ahead, 2019 may not show any substantial rise in the growth rate. Even though the Goods and Services Tax (GST) has stabilised, much will depend on the pickup in the investment rate.

The international environment is not that conducive for growth in our foreign trade; this will have an impact on our exports and, therefore, growth. Perhaps the growth rate will be between 7.2% and 7.5%. Though this may be the highest growth rate of any country, it falls short of our requirements.

Going ahead, what are our major concerns?

Investment ratio

In the final analysis, the growth rate depends on the investment rate and the productivity of capital or its inverse incremental capital-output ratio.

The incremental capital output ratio is a catch-all expression. It depends upon a multiple number of factors such as quality of labour, which again depends on education and skill development levels, and technology, which is constantly changing. For ensuring a sustained high growth, we need to raise the investment ratio and keep the incremental capital-output ratio at 4. The Gross Fixed Capital Formation ratio has fallen from 35.8% in 2007-08 to 28.5% in 2017-18. The journey to raise the investment ratio is not going to be easy. ‘Animal spirits’ must be revived. A tranquil political and economic environment needs to be nurtured.

Banking system

An important factor affecting economic growth is the condition of our banking system. Non-performing assets (NPAs), including stressed assets, as a proportion of loans of public sector banks stood at 16.7% as of March 2018. As many as 11 public sector banks are under Prompt Corrective Action (PCA). This restricts the lending abilities of these banks. Added to this, the non banking financial company (NBFC) system is also under stress. This is partly a reflection of the stress in the banking system since most NBFCs borrow from banks. Recapitalisation of public sector banks will partly solve the problem. It is not clear at this point how much it will help in adding to lending capacity.

Some have advocated providing more capital to banks outside the PCA framework as that will increase their lending capacity immediately.

Today, banks are responsible both for short-term and long-term lending. Their inability to lend affects the availability of working capital as well as capital expenditures.

The decision to pump in more capital to public sector banks must be completed soon. The growth rate in the industrial sector will depend on how quickly the banking system comes back to normalcy.

Employment growth

There is a great concern about the inadequate growth of employment. Honestly, we do not have satisfactory employment numbers. The employment data in the organised sector are reliable. But the employment in the informal sector is much larger. One question that is asked is that if growth is around 7%, why is there no corresponding growth in employment? We need to keep two factors in mind. Growth can occur either as a result of increase in investment or because of better utilisation of existing capacity. It is growth which is led by new investment that leads to a significant increase in employment. But growth caused by improved efficiency of utilisation of existing capital can lead only to a marginal increase in employment. Much of the growth seen in the last few years is of the latter variety.

Second, the increase in employment seen in the period between 2004-05 and 2009-10 was because of the rapid growth of the information technology (IT) and financial sectors. The IT sector has slowed down. The financial sector is under stress. Employment in these sectors was visible and educated entrants into the labour market found ample opportunities. The IT sector growth rate is not likely to pick up significantly as this industry is undergoing many structural changes. The revival of the banking system depends on a number of factors. Thus, even from the point of view of employment, the key factor is the pickup in investment.

India’s external sector has grown and is well integrated with the rest of the world. India’s trade in goods and services as a percentage of GDP has grown to 42% of GDP. Therefore, what happens in the rest of the world affects India’s growth very much. India’s balance of payment situation has been comfortable since liberalisation. However, there are vulnerabilities as seen in September-October 2018, when the value of the rupee suddenly plummeted when crude oil prices rose and there were simultaneously capital outflows. RBI intervention and the subsequent fall in crude prices have restored the value of the rupee. In April-November 2018, India’s exports of goods grew by 11.6%. However, we need to note that exports growth was 5.2% (2016-17) and 9.8% (2017-18). Strong growth in exports is a must if we have to keep the current account deficit (CAD) at a manageable level.

The forecast for world trade and output is not encouraging. There are too many uncertainties which include an intensification in the trade war. Along with export promotion, we also need to contain some of our large imports. A watch on India’s CAD is critically important if we have to achieve growth with stability.

Agrarian distress

The future growth also depends on the performance of agriculture. Agrarian distress is widespread. Strangely, the fall in prices of agricultural products is in one sense a reflection of our success in raising output. Some years ago, the concern was a rise in the price of pulses to abnormally high levels. But today the picture is reversed. Thanks to increase in production, prices have fallen. Similar is the case with respect to vegetables, particularly onion. The need of agriculturists is income in current prices. The solution to the fall in prices lies in government intervening in the market and buying off the surplus over normal levels. The market will then automatically take prices to the normal level. The important requirement in this context is not only the financial capacity of the government to procure but also adequate physical arrangements to procure and store. The procured agricultural products can be sold by the government in later years when output is low or utilised in any safety net programme.

Loan waivers are at best short-term solutions. The fundamental problem is one of increasing productivity and enabling farmers to achieve increased output and better prices. There is also a basic weakness that we have to address. The average size of landholding is so small that any amount of increase in productivity will not give adequate income. Farmers have to think in terms of consolidation of landholdings so that they can get the benefits of larger size. Small farmers will also have to think in terms of higher value-added products like vegetables. A combined attack to increase productivity, consolidate landholdings and improve marketing is needed to assure farmers of better income.

Thus there are five concerns as we stand at the beginning of 2019. These are: raising the investment ratio; putting the banking system back on the rails; employment generation through better growth; enhancing export growth to contain the CAD; and removing agrarian distress by increasing productivity and consolidation of small landholdings. These issues need to be addressed comprehensively, if we have to achieve sustained high growth.

A case of unprincipled criminalisation

The triple talaq Bill is a classic case of an unfair legislative move with a populist agenda

In an essay published in the Washington University Law Review (1979), Martin R. Gardner posed a significant question whether an “illicit legislative motivation” could be “a sufficient condition for unconstitutionality”. He explored this “muddled area” in the context of religious motivation under the establishment clause of the U.S. Constitution and said that “the claim that religious motivation justifies invalidation is controversial and largely conjectured”. He, however, identified “significant sectarian motivation” without a “secular purpose” as a ground for invalidation of the law.

The content of the Muslim Women (Protection of Rights on Marriage) Bill, 2018 (Triple Talaq Bill) clearly reflects a sectarian overtone that even attempted to mislead the public by distorting the Supreme Court judgment in Shayara Bano’s case (2017). In the ‘statement of objects and reasons’ attached to the Bill, Union Law Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad said that in spite of the Supreme Court setting aside the practice of talaq-e-biddat in Shayara Bano, there have been reports of divorce by way of such means. He described the Bill as an instance of “state action to give effect to the order of the Supreme Court and to redress the grievances of victims of illegal divorce”. He also lamented that the Supreme Court verdict “has not worked as any deterrent in bringing down the number of divorces by this practice among certain Muslims”.

Disproportionate punishment

The Bill is a classic case of an unfair and deceptive legislative move with a populist agenda, which in a country like India should call for a novel and effective judicial scrutiny. First of all, in the emblematic judgment in Shayara Bano the majority on the Bench had invalidated the practice by terming it as unconstitutional. The simple and plain effect of the verdict is that the pronouncement of triple talaq is a nullity having no legal effect at all on a subsisting marriage, and despite the husband’s gesture, the matrimonial bond would remain intact, without being dissolved, in the eye of the law. Therefore, the Bill proposes to criminalise an act which is non est in the eye of the law. The disproportionate punishment of imprisonment for three years for a civil wrong without even a civil consequence due to the Supreme Court’s judgment is antithetical to the very idea of principled criminalisation. Paradoxically, it was in 2018 that the top court has ostensibly developed this concept by way of the verdicts on homosexuality (Navtej Singh Johar v Union of India) and adultery (Joseph Shine v. Union of India).

Second, the majority verdict in Shayara Bano did not direct the government or Parliament to criminalise triple talaq or “to give effect to the order”, as implied in the Bill. There was no need to do so either, as the judgment got effectuated on its own. The judgment had no intention to create any deterrent, since the very act of triple talaq is void ab initio, according to the Supreme Court. The Bill thus tries to distort the intent and content of what the court said in Shayara Bano. An analogy between criminalisation of dowry and triple talaq does not make sense. In the case of dowry, transaction is a reality, whereas in triple talaq, after the top court holding that it is a nullity, there is no act at all in the legal sense to constitute an offence. The Bill thus assumes validity for an action which the court invalidated, and as such the very thematic premise for the Bill is artificial, erroneous and even contemptuous. The settled legal principle in India that no ill motive could be attributed to legislation would require a revisit, when politics overweighs constitutionalism.

Third, criminalisation of triple talaq, can only motivate a “clever” husband to resort to other methods of divorce which do not fall within the ambit of the Bill or to simply desert his wife. Thus the Bill does not serve the Muslim woman’s interest.

Blow against tenets

By trying to segregate a particular mode of divorce in a particular community and to punish the men of that community alone, the Centre is trying to shatter two fundamental tenets of the Indian Constitution — equality in the eye of the law and secularism.

Breaking barriers

The key is to allow women to pray at Sabarimala in an orderly way

In facilitating the entry of two women, albeit in stealth and under the cover of darkness, the Kerala government has displayed some resolve in breaking the illegal blockade imposed by some devotees on permitting females in the 10-50 age group into the Sabarimala temple. This is the first time women of menstruating age have made their way into the shrine after a Constitution Bench of the Supreme Court in September 2018 threw the temple open to women of all ages. Under some pressure to demonstrate that it had not gone soft as a result of the upsurge of protests against the Supreme Court’s order and was keen on signalling that it was in favour of upholding the law, the government appears to have drawn up an elaborate and closely scripted plan, with assistance from the State police and civil administration, to help Bindu and Kanakadurga make their way unnoticed to the temple from the foothills at Pampa. Unfortunately, but not entirely unpredictably, news of their visit has resulted in a cycle of violent and politically orchestrated protests, clashes, and mass arrests. Tragically, one life was lost.

In the face of an illegal blockade to prevent menstruating-age women from visiting the temple, the Kerala government will regard this operation as a victory. But clearly, even it must be aware that covert ops such as this one are not a sustainable solution to the Sabarimala problem. The State government’s dilemma — and also its responsibility — is to find a way of ensuring safe passage for all women who want to visit the temple while keeping the peace at the same time. Given the passions at play, and the cynical attempts to politically exploit them, this is anything but an easy task. In the short term, though — and this may well have been its intent — the Left Front government has managed to alter the narrative in the Sabarimala controversy. The decision of the temple authorities to close the sanctum sanctorum and perform purification rituals has invoked old and regressive notions of purity and pollution, of defilement and desecration. They have focussed attention on the role of the chief priest (or Tantri) of Sabarimala, leaving him open to the charge levelled by Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan that his actions violated both the Supreme Court order and the Devaswom Manual. At a larger level, the entry of the two women has, perhaps inevitably, recalled Justice D.Y. Chandrachud’s words in the majority judgment in the Sabarimala case. In his judgment, he had argued that the ban on women’s entry was a “form of untouchability”, and their exclusion was a “violation of the right to liberty, dignity and equality”. Meanwhile, as passions continue to escalate, it is important for the State government, the Travancore Devaswom Board and also those representing the devotees to initiate a conversation and prevent the State from being consumed in a further cycle of violence and conflict over this issue.

Dark side of the moon

China’s successful mission will greatly advance knowledge of earth’s satellite

China joined a select group of countries with successful missions to the moon, when its spacecraft, Chang’e-4, successfully made a landing at ‘10.26 on January 3’, according to the China National Space Administration. It landed at a spot on the moon’s far side, the Von Kármán crater, which is untouched by earlier missions from earth. After landing, Chang’e-4, named after the Chinese moon goddess, relayed a close-up image of the ‘far’ side of the moon through the communication relay satellite Queqiao. The Queqiao satellite was launched last May by China for the very purpose of helping Chang’e-4 communicate with earth, as a direct communication with it is not possible from the moon’s far side, which never faces earth. The Chang’e-4 mission carries payloads, of which two are in collaboration with Germany and Sweden, respectively. The instruments include cameras, low-frequency radio spectrum analyser, lunar neutron and radiation dose detectors, and many more. Among other things, the mission could pave the way to setting up a radio telescope on the far side of the moon.

Considering that earth is right next door to the moon, we know precious little about it. Its formation and early evolution present mysteries which, if understood, could guide us in planetary studies, and help in understanding exoplanets. The near side, which faces earth, has dark patterns; the far side, turned away, is marked with circular spots that are craters formed by meteorite collisions. The moon’s near side is believed to have a thinner shell, so that when meteorites bombarded it they cracked its shell, releasing lava which gushed out and covered traces of the impact and left dark patches. Being thicker, the far side did not face such an erasure and bears the marks of the crater impacts. This mission could verify these theories and discover the reason behind these dichotomies. The moon’s far side also differs from the near side in that it is shielded from all the radio waves emanating from earth. Communication devices and satellites have made it too noisy for radio astronomers to easily and accurately interpret signals. The near side of the moon also suffers from this problem of noise. On the other hand, the far side is a quiet place and a haven for earthly aspirations to set up a radio telescope that could reveal astronomical mysteries, such as the structure of the universe shortly after the Big Bang. China has now joined the U.S. and the former USSR as the only countries to have made a “soft landing” on the moon. But beyond underlining China’s technological advances, Chang’e-4 could herald a new chapter in lunar exploration.

Is the Modi charisma fading?

Leaders like Narendra Modi run the danger of becoming their own nemesis

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s charisma has been visibly declining since mid-2017. The point that is open for debate is whether or not he can reverse the slide by playing the several cards he is adept at playing. Paradoxically, the onset of the fade-out of Mr. Modi’s charisma coincided with the beginning of the makeover of Rahul Gandhi. The scion is no longer a presumptive leader; he has emerged as Mr. Modi’s prime challenger.

Regardless of how the political narrative concludes this year, Mr. Modi will surely rue his role in the emergence of the Congress president as a credible politician. Mr. Gandhi need not be formally named as the prime ministerial face of the Opposition because in its hurry to convert the electoral battle into a Modi versus Gandhi contest, the BJP willy-nilly elevated Mr. Gandhi’s political stock by unceasingly ridiculing him. Mr. Modi repeated the Congress leadership’s error of ceaselessly targeting him when he was Gujarat Chief Minister and elevating him from a regional leader to a national one.

Leaders like Mr. Modi run the danger of becoming their own nemesis. To assess his current standing, we need to weigh him against his own past. In 2013-14, there was certainty about the BJP’s victory; only the final tally was the subject of speculation. Back then, Mr. Modi was the alternative. In contrast, only a dramatic alteration in the current political narrative can ensure that the BJP gets anywhere close to its 2014 tally of 282 seats in the Lok Sabha. The party’s hopes of preventing a major decline in its tally is now significantly dependent on the TINA (There Is No Alternative) factor.

Evidence of decline

The decline in Mr. Modi’s charisma is evident through both anecdotal and empirical evidence. The first signs of decline were seen in Gujarat in 2017 when people began walking out of his election meetings. From the scenario in 2014, when venues of his meetings reverberated with chants of “Modi, Modi”, visuals of people tossing Modi masks while leaving were ominous. Yet, the escape by the skin of his teeth was proof that much of the sheen had worn off. Throughout 2018, empirical proof was added to what was already discernible. The BJP lost many by-elections, and the final confirmation came with the Assembly elections at the end of the year. For a party that won every election in the name of Mr. Modi, even when it nominated chief ministerial candidates, the Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan defeats demonstrated that much of the hype around Brand Modi has eroded in the Hindi heartland. This was where the BJP won almost 200 Lok Sabha seats in 2014.

A deduction can be made of the erosion of Mr. Modi’s charisma by deconstructing the magnetism which drew people towards him in 2014. First, it was grounded in massive anti-incumbency against the Manmohan Singh government. Over this edifice, myths surrounding Mr. Modi were woven. This included the publicised concept of the Gujarat model, euphemism for single-window administration, which caught the imagination of the people because Mr. Singh spoke of the compulsions of coalition politics. The situation was tailor-made for the emergence of a powerful orator with the image of a decisive leader to raise hopes, and Mr. Modi possessed these skills amply.

An uphill task

The advantage of being an outsider is no longer there. The incumbent cannot blame anyone else any more. Young voters are dependent on hearsay, for they have little direct memory of the perils of coalitions. The resurrection of Mr. Modi’s charisma is therefore an uphill task and explains the decision to bank on Hindutva, ultranationalism and doles.

There is a decline in Mr. Modi’s popularity, but it is not even across States

Let us make no mistake: there is certainly a decline in the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but this is not widespread. The degree of his popularity changes from place to place, from State to State. Several surveys conducted in May 2018, including those conducted by us, indicate that Mr. Modi’s popularity not only declined over the last one year, but hit an all-time low of 33%, which is three percentage points lower than his popularity in 2014 when he became Prime Minister. The defeat of the BJP in three States — Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan — in the recent Assembly polls only suggests that there is a further decline in his popularity.

Those who voted for Mr. Modi expected him to bring about positive change and take the country on the path of development. People expected more jobs to be created, resulting in a faster economic growth for India. In the two years following the BJP’s victory, Mr. Modi’s popularity increased. This was a clear indication of people’s growing faith in him. But things seem to have changed in the last one year. Let’s examine this across regions and States.

Popularity is high

The northeastern States have not witnessed a significant decline in Mr. Modi’s popularity — partly because the Congress ruled many of these States for decades and there is a desire for change and partly because Mr. Modi is relatively new in these areas. In Assam, Mr. Modi witnessed a peak in popularity in the beginning of 2018; this has dipped now. In Odisha, his popularity has increased rapidly since 2014. In West Bengal, Mr. Modi’s popularity has not only increased, he has emerged as the main challenger to the Trinamool Congress led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. The Congress there has been relegated to a distant third position. In Bihar, Mr. Modi’s popularity is on the rise, from 46% in 2014 to 56% in May 2018, when the surveys were conducted.

Popularity has been constant

In Rajasthan (where the BJP lost in the recent Assembly election), Delhi, Haryana, and Gujarat, Mr. Modi’s popularity has not only remained reasonably high, it has also been constant in the last four and a half years. In Haryana, the State government is perhaps not as popular as other BJP State governments, and the Opposition is weak. But Modi’s national leadership is not in doubt.

Popularity is low

The picture is less rosy in other States. In Uttar Pradesh, surveys have indicated a steep decline in his popularity: from 56% in April 2017 to 35%. It is important to note that this is lower than his popularity rating in April-May 2014 before the Lok Sabha elections. There is a similar decline in his popularity in Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, and Punjab. The most alarming decline is in Andhra Pradesh, where Mr. Modi was considered the most suitable prime ministerial candidate by 56% voters in 2014; now this has come down to 20%. Telangana has also witnessed a significant decline in his popularity: from 33% in 2014 to 17% in May 2018. In Tamil Nadu, the picture is no different. Karnataka is the only exception in the south where Mr. Modi’s popularity remains intact.

The Prime Minister’s popularity has gone down but it is not even across States. The story is not as simple as we think.

Mr. Modi seems to emerge stronger from bold gambles such as demonetisation and GST

Sceptics may draw momentary solace from an imaginary fading of Narendra Modi’s charisma in the wake of the recent Assembly election results. Every time such scepticism is built on some unfounded grounds, the consequences prove disastrous for those raising doubts. In Uttar Pradesh, those who felt that the BJP had reached its peak in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and assumed that it would not be able to repeat such a feat were proved wrong when the Assembly election results came out. Mr. Modi has proven his critics wrong time and again since the days he was Chief Minister of Gujarat. His charisma has never waned; in fact, it has been growing overwhelmingly with every passing day. Mr. Modi’s charisma is built on hard work, consistency, commitment and perseverance. He has a strong political will and vision.

The Modi phenomenon

Mr. Modi has emerged as a phenomenon in Indian politics. When scams dominated the headlines, when terms like ‘policy paralysis’ came into vogue, and when everything seemed to be plunged in negativity, Mr. Modi emerged as a ray of hope. Few had predicted such a massive mandate for the BJP in 2014. It was the Modi phenomenon that unfolded in electoral performances and redrew the political landscape of the majority of the States. Mr. Modi not only seems to come out unscathed from bold gambles like demonetisation and imposition of the Goods and Services Tax, but seems to become stronger after them. He is a man of vision who turns adversities into opportunities. He is the daring leader who can match China in Doklam and who has the grit to carry out surgical strikes against Pakistan.

Bringing about change

Living up to his promise of providing a corruption-free government, Mr. Modi has made corruption in high places a thing of the past. His government puts emphasis on changing the lives of the poorest of the poor. A large number of innovative schemes like the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana, Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, Direct Benefit Transfer, Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, Jan Dhan scheme, and Mudra have brought massive change across India. The rural sector has received more budgetary support and attention. The government’s target is to double farmers’ income by 2022. Health and wellness programmes like Ayushman Bharat, Mission Indradhanush and Pradhan Mantri Bhartiya Janaushadhi Pariyojana are addressing the basic health needs of the people.

Even Mr. Modi’s detractors acknowledge his charisma and magnetic appeal among the masses. He has raised the bar for himself. He charms the masses by raising their aspirations and by meeting his targets before deadlines.

As Chief Minister, he led the rise of Gujarat and it slowly became the shining example for other States to emulate. As Prime Minister, he is leaving his mark everywhere, from policymaking to governance, with a result-oriented approach.

As he dominates the political horizon of the country, Mr. Modi’s charisma continues to leave his opponents flummoxed. The more he is doubted, the more Mr. Modi grows.

Voting for change

Post-poll surveys suggest that Muslims in Madhya Pradesh preferred Shivraj Singh Chouhan but not the BJP

“The country’s system can run with disbelief (kufr) but not with oppression (zulm),” said Mufti Mohammad Aminuddin Qasmi, the Imam of a small mosque located on Chiklod road in Bhopal. “God will never allow this; he has always punished oppression.”

At this juncture, when the Ram Mandir issue is very much alive and Muslims are subjected to everyday violence, these words reflect the mood of the Muslim voters of Madhya Pradesh. In the State that went to polls last month, Muslims voted mostly for the Congress, as was revealed in surveys by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies-Lokniti (CSDS-Lokniti), and in my own fieldwork.

The Congress has formed the government in Madhya Pradesh with the help of the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party. In the new Assembly, there are only two Muslim MLAs, both from the Congress. From 1952 to 2018, on average, only 1% and 2.3% of Muslims were elected and nominated in the Assembly, respectively. In a State where Muslims are 6.6% of the population, this is a dismal number.

According to Madhya Pradesh’s post-poll survey data on Muslim voters’ opinions (Lokniti-CSDS 2018), around 51% of Muslims voted for the Congress, and 15% for the BJP. Even though the BJP lost the election, 32% of Muslims said they preferred Shivraj Singh Chouhan as Chief Minister, while 36% said they preferred Jyotiraditya Scindia and 19% said they preferred Kamal Nath. The preference of Muslims for Mr. Chouhan was always higher than for his party, current and past surveys of CSDS-Lokniti suggest.

It is noticeable that 35% Muslims “fully dislike” Prime Minster Narendra Modi. Around 54% of Muslim voters said that the “Ayodhya temple/mosque dispute” is a “very important” electoral issue, and around 51% of Muslims based their opinions on the Supreme Court’s views on the case.

My fieldwork on the Muslims of Bhopal, who represent an important segment of the State’s overall voting Muslim population, suggests that Muslims this time wanted change and hence voted for the Congress. Most Muslims I met were in favour of the Congress, and while they liked Mr. Chouhan, they disliked the idea of another BJP government. In the CSDS-Lokniti survey too, 31% and 35% of Muslims were found to be “fully dissatisfied” with the BJP government in Madhya Pradesh and the Centre, respectively. Almost every Muslim criticised the 2016 demonetisation policy; in the post-poll survey too, around 51% of the Muslims said demonetisation was a “wrong decision”.

The greater the extent to which voters express similar voting preferences in Assembly and Lok Sabha elections, the more likely it is that the post-poll survey finding of CSDS-Lokniti, that around 64% of Muslims of Madhya Pradesh will vote again for the Congress in this year’s Lok Sabha elections, is an accurate prediction of the outcome.

Read The Hindu Notes of 4th January 2019 for UPSC Civil Service Examination, State Civil Service Examination and other competitive Examination

Topic Discussed: The Hindu Notes of 4th January 2019

• Hope with concerns in 2019
• A case of unprincipled criminalisation
• Breaking barriers
• Dark side of the moon
• Is the Modi charisma fading?
• Voting for change

Hope with concerns in 2019

Five issues need to be addressed comprehensively if India is to achieve sustained high growth

The New Year is always looked forward to with hope, whatever the conditions might have been the previous year; 2018 has been a mixed bag, both globally and domestically.

Globally, the growth rate in 2018 was high, particularly in the United States. But strong signs of a trade war emerged, dimming hopes of faster international trade. Britain is passing through the pangs of separation from the European Union. Domestically, the first quarter growth rate was high. But signs are not good for the balance of the year. The rupee underwent a severe shock as crude oil prices rose, and abated after a fall in oil prices. While prices fell, agrarian distress accentuated.

India’s growth rate in 2018-19 is forecast at 7.4% by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). But it looks to be a touch-and-go situation. More likely, it will be slightly lower. Looking ahead, 2019 may not show any substantial rise in the growth rate. Even though the Goods and Services Tax (GST) has stabilised, much will depend on the pickup in the investment rate.

The international environment is not that conducive for growth in our foreign trade; this will have an impact on our exports and, therefore, growth. Perhaps the growth rate will be between 7.2% and 7.5%. Though this may be the highest growth rate of any country, it falls short of our requirements.

Going ahead, what are our major concerns?

Investment ratio

In the final analysis, the growth rate depends on the investment rate and the productivity of capital or its inverse incremental capital-output ratio.

The incremental capital output ratio is a catch-all expression. It depends upon a multiple number of factors such as quality of labour, which again depends on education and skill development levels, and technology, which is constantly changing. For ensuring a sustained high growth, we need to raise the investment ratio and keep the incremental capital-output ratio at 4. The Gross Fixed Capital Formation ratio has fallen from 35.8% in 2007-08 to 28.5% in 2017-18. The journey to raise the investment ratio is not going to be easy. ‘Animal spirits’ must be revived. A tranquil political and economic environment needs to be nurtured.

Banking system

An important factor affecting economic growth is the condition of our banking system. Non-performing assets (NPAs), including stressed assets, as a proportion of loans of public sector banks stood at 16.7% as of March 2018. As many as 11 public sector banks are under Prompt Corrective Action (PCA). This restricts the lending abilities of these banks. Added to this, the non banking financial company (NBFC) system is also under stress. This is partly a reflection of the stress in the banking system since most NBFCs borrow from banks. Recapitalisation of public sector banks will partly solve the problem. It is not clear at this point how much it will help in adding to lending capacity.

Some have advocated providing more capital to banks outside the PCA framework as that will increase their lending capacity immediately.

Today, banks are responsible both for short-term and long-term lending. Their inability to lend affects the availability of working capital as well as capital expenditures.

The decision to pump in more capital to public sector banks must be completed soon. The growth rate in the industrial sector will depend on how quickly the banking system comes back to normalcy.

Employment growth

There is a great concern about the inadequate growth of employment. Honestly, we do not have satisfactory employment numbers. The employment data in the organised sector are reliable. But the employment in the informal sector is much larger. One question that is asked is that if growth is around 7%, why is there no corresponding growth in employment? We need to keep two factors in mind. Growth can occur either as a result of increase in investment or because of better utilisation of existing capacity. It is growth which is led by new investment that leads to a significant increase in employment. But growth caused by improved efficiency of utilisation of existing capital can lead only to a marginal increase in employment. Much of the growth seen in the last few years is of the latter variety.

Second, the increase in employment seen in the period between 2004-05 and 2009-10 was because of the rapid growth of the information technology (IT) and financial sectors. The IT sector has slowed down. The financial sector is under stress. Employment in these sectors was visible and educated entrants into the labour market found ample opportunities. The IT sector growth rate is not likely to pick up significantly as this industry is undergoing many structural changes. The revival of the banking system depends on a number of factors. Thus, even from the point of view of employment, the key factor is the pickup in investment.

India’s external sector has grown and is well integrated with the rest of the world. India’s trade in goods and services as a percentage of GDP has grown to 42% of GDP. Therefore, what happens in the rest of the world affects India’s growth very much. India’s balance of payment situation has been comfortable since liberalisation. However, there are vulnerabilities as seen in September-October 2018, when the value of the rupee suddenly plummeted when crude oil prices rose and there were simultaneously capital outflows. RBI intervention and the subsequent fall in crude prices have restored the value of the rupee. In April-November 2018, India’s exports of goods grew by 11.6%. However, we need to note that exports growth was 5.2% (2016-17) and 9.8% (2017-18). Strong growth in exports is a must if we have to keep the current account deficit (CAD) at a manageable level.

The forecast for world trade and output is not encouraging. There are too many uncertainties which include an intensification in the trade war. Along with export promotion, we also need to contain some of our large imports. A watch on India’s CAD is critically important if we have to achieve growth with stability.

Agrarian distress

The future growth also depends on the performance of agriculture. Agrarian distress is widespread. Strangely, the fall in prices of agricultural products is in one sense a reflection of our success in raising output. Some years ago, the concern was a rise in the price of pulses to abnormally high levels. But today the picture is reversed. Thanks to increase in production, prices have fallen. Similar is the case with respect to vegetables, particularly onion. The need of agriculturists is income in current prices. The solution to the fall in prices lies in government intervening in the market and buying off the surplus over normal levels. The market will then automatically take prices to the normal level. The important requirement in this context is not only the financial capacity of the government to procure but also adequate physical arrangements to procure and store. The procured agricultural products can be sold by the government in later years when output is low or utilised in any safety net programme.

Loan waivers are at best short-term solutions. The fundamental problem is one of increasing productivity and enabling farmers to achieve increased output and better prices. There is also a basic weakness that we have to address. The average size of landholding is so small that any amount of increase in productivity will not give adequate income. Farmers have to think in terms of consolidation of landholdings so that they can get the benefits of larger size. Small farmers will also have to think in terms of higher value-added products like vegetables. A combined attack to increase productivity, consolidate landholdings and improve marketing is needed to assure farmers of better income.

Thus there are five concerns as we stand at the beginning of 2019. These are: raising the investment ratio; putting the banking system back on the rails; employment generation through better growth; enhancing export growth to contain the CAD; and removing agrarian distress by increasing productivity and consolidation of small landholdings. These issues need to be addressed comprehensively, if we have to achieve sustained high growth.

A case of unprincipled criminalisation

The triple talaq Bill is a classic case of an unfair legislative move with a populist agenda

In an essay published in the Washington University Law Review (1979), Martin R. Gardner posed a significant question whether an “illicit legislative motivation” could be “a sufficient condition for unconstitutionality”. He explored this “muddled area” in the context of religious motivation under the establishment clause of the U.S. Constitution and said that “the claim that religious motivation justifies invalidation is controversial and largely conjectured”. He, however, identified “significant sectarian motivation” without a “secular purpose” as a ground for invalidation of the law.

The content of the Muslim Women (Protection of Rights on Marriage) Bill, 2018 (Triple Talaq Bill) clearly reflects a sectarian overtone that even attempted to mislead the public by distorting the Supreme Court judgment in Shayara Bano’s case (2017). In the ‘statement of objects and reasons’ attached to the Bill, Union Law Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad said that in spite of the Supreme Court setting aside the practice of talaq-e-biddat in Shayara Bano, there have been reports of divorce by way of such means. He described the Bill as an instance of “state action to give effect to the order of the Supreme Court and to redress the grievances of victims of illegal divorce”. He also lamented that the Supreme Court verdict “has not worked as any deterrent in bringing down the number of divorces by this practice among certain Muslims”.

Disproportionate punishment

The Bill is a classic case of an unfair and deceptive legislative move with a populist agenda, which in a country like India should call for a novel and effective judicial scrutiny. First of all, in the emblematic judgment in Shayara Bano the majority on the Bench had invalidated the practice by terming it as unconstitutional. The simple and plain effect of the verdict is that the pronouncement of triple talaq is a nullity having no legal effect at all on a subsisting marriage, and despite the husband’s gesture, the matrimonial bond would remain intact, without being dissolved, in the eye of the law. Therefore, the Bill proposes to criminalise an act which is non est in the eye of the law. The disproportionate punishment of imprisonment for three years for a civil wrong without even a civil consequence due to the Supreme Court’s judgment is antithetical to the very idea of principled criminalisation. Paradoxically, it was in 2018 that the top court has ostensibly developed this concept by way of the verdicts on homosexuality (Navtej Singh Johar v Union of India) and adultery (Joseph Shine v. Union of India).

Second, the majority verdict in Shayara Bano did not direct the government or Parliament to criminalise triple talaq or “to give effect to the order”, as implied in the Bill. There was no need to do so either, as the judgment got effectuated on its own. The judgment had no intention to create any deterrent, since the very act of triple talaq is void ab initio, according to the Supreme Court. The Bill thus tries to distort the intent and content of what the court said in Shayara Bano. An analogy between criminalisation of dowry and triple talaq does not make sense. In the case of dowry, transaction is a reality, whereas in triple talaq, after the top court holding that it is a nullity, there is no act at all in the legal sense to constitute an offence. The Bill thus assumes validity for an action which the court invalidated, and as such the very thematic premise for the Bill is artificial, erroneous and even contemptuous. The settled legal principle in India that no ill motive could be attributed to legislation would require a revisit, when politics overweighs constitutionalism.

Third, criminalisation of triple talaq, can only motivate a “clever” husband to resort to other methods of divorce which do not fall within the ambit of the Bill or to simply desert his wife. Thus the Bill does not serve the Muslim woman’s interest.

Blow against tenets

By trying to segregate a particular mode of divorce in a particular community and to punish the men of that community alone, the Centre is trying to shatter two fundamental tenets of the Indian Constitution — equality in the eye of the law and secularism.

Breaking barriers

The key is to allow women to pray at Sabarimala in an orderly way

In facilitating the entry of two women, albeit in stealth and under the cover of darkness, the Kerala government has displayed some resolve in breaking the illegal blockade imposed by some devotees on permitting females in the 10-50 age group into the Sabarimala temple. This is the first time women of menstruating age have made their way into the shrine after a Constitution Bench of the Supreme Court in September 2018 threw the temple open to women of all ages. Under some pressure to demonstrate that it had not gone soft as a result of the upsurge of protests against the Supreme Court’s order and was keen on signalling that it was in favour of upholding the law, the government appears to have drawn up an elaborate and closely scripted plan, with assistance from the State police and civil administration, to help Bindu and Kanakadurga make their way unnoticed to the temple from the foothills at Pampa. Unfortunately, but not entirely unpredictably, news of their visit has resulted in a cycle of violent and politically orchestrated protests, clashes, and mass arrests. Tragically, one life was lost.

In the face of an illegal blockade to prevent menstruating-age women from visiting the temple, the Kerala government will regard this operation as a victory. But clearly, even it must be aware that covert ops such as this one are not a sustainable solution to the Sabarimala problem. The State government’s dilemma — and also its responsibility — is to find a way of ensuring safe passage for all women who want to visit the temple while keeping the peace at the same time. Given the passions at play, and the cynical attempts to politically exploit them, this is anything but an easy task. In the short term, though — and this may well have been its intent — the Left Front government has managed to alter the narrative in the Sabarimala controversy. The decision of the temple authorities to close the sanctum sanctorum and perform purification rituals has invoked old and regressive notions of purity and pollution, of defilement and desecration. They have focussed attention on the role of the chief priest (or Tantri) of Sabarimala, leaving him open to the charge levelled by Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan that his actions violated both the Supreme Court order and the Devaswom Manual. At a larger level, the entry of the two women has, perhaps inevitably, recalled Justice D.Y. Chandrachud’s words in the majority judgment in the Sabarimala case. In his judgment, he had argued that the ban on women’s entry was a “form of untouchability”, and their exclusion was a “violation of the right to liberty, dignity and equality”. Meanwhile, as passions continue to escalate, it is important for the State government, the Travancore Devaswom Board and also those representing the devotees to initiate a conversation and prevent the State from being consumed in a further cycle of violence and conflict over this issue.

Dark side of the moon

China’s successful mission will greatly advance knowledge of earth’s satellite

China joined a select group of countries with successful missions to the moon, when its spacecraft, Chang’e-4, successfully made a landing at ‘10.26 on January 3’, according to the China National Space Administration. It landed at a spot on the moon’s far side, the Von Kármán crater, which is untouched by earlier missions from earth. After landing, Chang’e-4, named after the Chinese moon goddess, relayed a close-up image of the ‘far’ side of the moon through the communication relay satellite Queqiao. The Queqiao satellite was launched last May by China for the very purpose of helping Chang’e-4 communicate with earth, as a direct communication with it is not possible from the moon’s far side, which never faces earth. The Chang’e-4 mission carries payloads, of which two are in collaboration with Germany and Sweden, respectively. The instruments include cameras, low-frequency radio spectrum analyser, lunar neutron and radiation dose detectors, and many more. Among other things, the mission could pave the way to setting up a radio telescope on the far side of the moon.

Considering that earth is right next door to the moon, we know precious little about it. Its formation and early evolution present mysteries which, if understood, could guide us in planetary studies, and help in understanding exoplanets. The near side, which faces earth, has dark patterns; the far side, turned away, is marked with circular spots that are craters formed by meteorite collisions. The moon’s near side is believed to have a thinner shell, so that when meteorites bombarded it they cracked its shell, releasing lava which gushed out and covered traces of the impact and left dark patches. Being thicker, the far side did not face such an erasure and bears the marks of the crater impacts. This mission could verify these theories and discover the reason behind these dichotomies. The moon’s far side also differs from the near side in that it is shielded from all the radio waves emanating from earth. Communication devices and satellites have made it too noisy for radio astronomers to easily and accurately interpret signals. The near side of the moon also suffers from this problem of noise. On the other hand, the far side is a quiet place and a haven for earthly aspirations to set up a radio telescope that could reveal astronomical mysteries, such as the structure of the universe shortly after the Big Bang. China has now joined the U.S. and the former USSR as the only countries to have made a “soft landing” on the moon. But beyond underlining China’s technological advances, Chang’e-4 could herald a new chapter in lunar exploration.

Is the Modi charisma fading?

Leaders like Narendra Modi run the danger of becoming their own nemesis

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s charisma has been visibly declining since mid-2017. The point that is open for debate is whether or not he can reverse the slide by playing the several cards he is adept at playing. Paradoxically, the onset of the fade-out of Mr. Modi’s charisma coincided with the beginning of the makeover of Rahul Gandhi. The scion is no longer a presumptive leader; he has emerged as Mr. Modi’s prime challenger.

Regardless of how the political narrative concludes this year, Mr. Modi will surely rue his role in the emergence of the Congress president as a credible politician. Mr. Gandhi need not be formally named as the prime ministerial face of the Opposition because in its hurry to convert the electoral battle into a Modi versus Gandhi contest, the BJP willy-nilly elevated Mr. Gandhi’s political stock by unceasingly ridiculing him. Mr. Modi repeated the Congress leadership’s error of ceaselessly targeting him when he was Gujarat Chief Minister and elevating him from a regional leader to a national one.

Leaders like Mr. Modi run the danger of becoming their own nemesis. To assess his current standing, we need to weigh him against his own past. In 2013-14, there was certainty about the BJP’s victory; only the final tally was the subject of speculation. Back then, Mr. Modi was the alternative. In contrast, only a dramatic alteration in the current political narrative can ensure that the BJP gets anywhere close to its 2014 tally of 282 seats in the Lok Sabha. The party’s hopes of preventing a major decline in its tally is now significantly dependent on the TINA (There Is No Alternative) factor.

Evidence of decline

The decline in Mr. Modi’s charisma is evident through both anecdotal and empirical evidence. The first signs of decline were seen in Gujarat in 2017 when people began walking out of his election meetings. From the scenario in 2014, when venues of his meetings reverberated with chants of “Modi, Modi”, visuals of people tossing Modi masks while leaving were ominous. Yet, the escape by the skin of his teeth was proof that much of the sheen had worn off. Throughout 2018, empirical proof was added to what was already discernible. The BJP lost many by-elections, and the final confirmation came with the Assembly elections at the end of the year. For a party that won every election in the name of Mr. Modi, even when it nominated chief ministerial candidates, the Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan defeats demonstrated that much of the hype around Brand Modi has eroded in the Hindi heartland. This was where the BJP won almost 200 Lok Sabha seats in 2014.

A deduction can be made of the erosion of Mr. Modi’s charisma by deconstructing the magnetism which drew people towards him in 2014. First, it was grounded in massive anti-incumbency against the Manmohan Singh government. Over this edifice, myths surrounding Mr. Modi were woven. This included the publicised concept of the Gujarat model, euphemism for single-window administration, which caught the imagination of the people because Mr. Singh spoke of the compulsions of coalition politics. The situation was tailor-made for the emergence of a powerful orator with the image of a decisive leader to raise hopes, and Mr. Modi possessed these skills amply.

An uphill task

The advantage of being an outsider is no longer there. The incumbent cannot blame anyone else any more. Young voters are dependent on hearsay, for they have little direct memory of the perils of coalitions. The resurrection of Mr. Modi’s charisma is therefore an uphill task and explains the decision to bank on Hindutva, ultranationalism and doles.

There is a decline in Mr. Modi’s popularity, but it is not even across States

Let us make no mistake: there is certainly a decline in the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but this is not widespread. The degree of his popularity changes from place to place, from State to State. Several surveys conducted in May 2018, including those conducted by us, indicate that Mr. Modi’s popularity not only declined over the last one year, but hit an all-time low of 33%, which is three percentage points lower than his popularity in 2014 when he became Prime Minister. The defeat of the BJP in three States — Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan — in the recent Assembly polls only suggests that there is a further decline in his popularity.

Those who voted for Mr. Modi expected him to bring about positive change and take the country on the path of development. People expected more jobs to be created, resulting in a faster economic growth for India. In the two years following the BJP’s victory, Mr. Modi’s popularity increased. This was a clear indication of people’s growing faith in him. But things seem to have changed in the last one year. Let’s examine this across regions and States.

Popularity is high

The northeastern States have not witnessed a significant decline in Mr. Modi’s popularity — partly because the Congress ruled many of these States for decades and there is a desire for change and partly because Mr. Modi is relatively new in these areas. In Assam, Mr. Modi witnessed a peak in popularity in the beginning of 2018; this has dipped now. In Odisha, his popularity has increased rapidly since 2014. In West Bengal, Mr. Modi’s popularity has not only increased, he has emerged as the main challenger to the Trinamool Congress led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. The Congress there has been relegated to a distant third position. In Bihar, Mr. Modi’s popularity is on the rise, from 46% in 2014 to 56% in May 2018, when the surveys were conducted.

Popularity has been constant

In Rajasthan (where the BJP lost in the recent Assembly election), Delhi, Haryana, and Gujarat, Mr. Modi’s popularity has not only remained reasonably high, it has also been constant in the last four and a half years. In Haryana, the State government is perhaps not as popular as other BJP State governments, and the Opposition is weak. But Modi’s national leadership is not in doubt.

Popularity is low

The picture is less rosy in other States. In Uttar Pradesh, surveys have indicated a steep decline in his popularity: from 56% in April 2017 to 35%. It is important to note that this is lower than his popularity rating in April-May 2014 before the Lok Sabha elections. There is a similar decline in his popularity in Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, and Punjab. The most alarming decline is in Andhra Pradesh, where Mr. Modi was considered the most suitable prime ministerial candidate by 56% voters in 2014; now this has come down to 20%. Telangana has also witnessed a significant decline in his popularity: from 33% in 2014 to 17% in May 2018. In Tamil Nadu, the picture is no different. Karnataka is the only exception in the south where Mr. Modi’s popularity remains intact.

The Prime Minister’s popularity has gone down but it is not even across States. The story is not as simple as we think.

Mr. Modi seems to emerge stronger from bold gambles such as demonetisation and GST

Sceptics may draw momentary solace from an imaginary fading of Narendra Modi’s charisma in the wake of the recent Assembly election results. Every time such scepticism is built on some unfounded grounds, the consequences prove disastrous for those raising doubts. In Uttar Pradesh, those who felt that the BJP had reached its peak in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and assumed that it would not be able to repeat such a feat were proved wrong when the Assembly election results came out. Mr. Modi has proven his critics wrong time and again since the days he was Chief Minister of Gujarat. His charisma has never waned; in fact, it has been growing overwhelmingly with every passing day. Mr. Modi’s charisma is built on hard work, consistency, commitment and perseverance. He has a strong political will and vision.

The Modi phenomenon

Mr. Modi has emerged as a phenomenon in Indian politics. When scams dominated the headlines, when terms like ‘policy paralysis’ came into vogue, and when everything seemed to be plunged in negativity, Mr. Modi emerged as a ray of hope. Few had predicted such a massive mandate for the BJP in 2014. It was the Modi phenomenon that unfolded in electoral performances and redrew the political landscape of the majority of the States. Mr. Modi not only seems to come out unscathed from bold gambles like demonetisation and imposition of the Goods and Services Tax, but seems to become stronger after them. He is a man of vision who turns adversities into opportunities. He is the daring leader who can match China in Doklam and who has the grit to carry out surgical strikes against Pakistan.

Bringing about change

Living up to his promise of providing a corruption-free government, Mr. Modi has made corruption in high places a thing of the past. His government puts emphasis on changing the lives of the poorest of the poor. A large number of innovative schemes like the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana, Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, Direct Benefit Transfer, Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, Jan Dhan scheme, and Mudra have brought massive change across India. The rural sector has received more budgetary support and attention. The government’s target is to double farmers’ income by 2022. Health and wellness programmes like Ayushman Bharat, Mission Indradhanush and Pradhan Mantri Bhartiya Janaushadhi Pariyojana are addressing the basic health needs of the people.

Even Mr. Modi’s detractors acknowledge his charisma and magnetic appeal among the masses. He has raised the bar for himself. He charms the masses by raising their aspirations and by meeting his targets before deadlines.

As Chief Minister, he led the rise of Gujarat and it slowly became the shining example for other States to emulate. As Prime Minister, he is leaving his mark everywhere, from policymaking to governance, with a result-oriented approach.

As he dominates the political horizon of the country, Mr. Modi’s charisma continues to leave his opponents flummoxed. The more he is doubted, the more Mr. Modi grows.

Voting for change

Post-poll surveys suggest that Muslims in Madhya Pradesh preferred Shivraj Singh Chouhan but not the BJP

“The country’s system can run with disbelief (kufr) but not with oppression (zulm),” said Mufti Mohammad Aminuddin Qasmi, the Imam of a small mosque located on Chiklod road in Bhopal. “God will never allow this; he has always punished oppression.”

At this juncture, when the Ram Mandir issue is very much alive and Muslims are subjected to everyday violence, these words reflect the mood of the Muslim voters of Madhya Pradesh. In the State that went to polls last month, Muslims voted mostly for the Congress, as was revealed in surveys by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies-Lokniti (CSDS-Lokniti), and in my own fieldwork.

The Congress has formed the government in Madhya Pradesh with the help of the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party. In the new Assembly, there are only two Muslim MLAs, both from the Congress. From 1952 to 2018, on average, only 1% and 2.3% of Muslims were elected and nominated in the Assembly, respectively. In a State where Muslims are 6.6% of the population, this is a dismal number.

According to Madhya Pradesh’s post-poll survey data on Muslim voters’ opinions (Lokniti-CSDS 2018), around 51% of Muslims voted for the Congress, and 15% for the BJP. Even though the BJP lost the election, 32% of Muslims said they preferred Shivraj Singh Chouhan as Chief Minister, while 36% said they preferred Jyotiraditya Scindia and 19% said they preferred Kamal Nath. The preference of Muslims for Mr. Chouhan was always higher than for his party, current and past surveys of CSDS-Lokniti suggest.

It is noticeable that 35% Muslims “fully dislike” Prime Minster Narendra Modi. Around 54% of Muslim voters said that the “Ayodhya temple/mosque dispute” is a “very important” electoral issue, and around 51% of Muslims based their opinions on the Supreme Court’s views on the case.

My fieldwork on the Muslims of Bhopal, who represent an important segment of the State’s overall voting Muslim population, suggests that Muslims this time wanted change and hence voted for the Congress. Most Muslims I met were in favour of the Congress, and while they liked Mr. Chouhan, they disliked the idea of another BJP government. In the CSDS-Lokniti survey too, 31% and 35% of Muslims were found to be “fully dissatisfied” with the BJP government in Madhya Pradesh and the Centre, respectively. Almost every Muslim criticised the 2016 demonetisation policy; in the post-poll survey too, around 51% of the Muslims said demonetisation was a “wrong decision”.

The greater the extent to which voters express similar voting preferences in Assembly and Lok Sabha elections, the more likely it is that the post-poll survey finding of CSDS-Lokniti, that around 64% of Muslims of Madhya Pradesh will vote again for the Congress in this year’s Lok Sabha elections, is an accurate prediction of the outcome.